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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 42 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model