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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 45 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-J.Natson to LA 14 for 4 yards (37-I.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.97 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -2.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model