Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 86

Washington Commanders 10 – Detroit Lions 3

(10:35) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DET 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-M.Hall to DET 45 for 14 yards (34-W.Smallwood).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.12 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 86, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model