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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 21

Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model