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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 62

Detroit Lions 13 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to WAS 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model