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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 72

Detroit Lions 16 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to WAS 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 22 for no gain (30-D.Virgin).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model