Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 85

Washington Commanders 13 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DET 37, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-D.Amendola to DET 41 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett, 45-M.Burton). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 37.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.43 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model