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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 70

Detroit Lions 16 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to WAS 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 34 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on WAS-58-C.Phillips, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model