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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.64 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model