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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 21 for -1 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model