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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model