Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

(10:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model