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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 35

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short left to 27-L.Fournette to TEN 1 for 9 yards (90-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model