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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.95 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model