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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(1:44) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at TEN 38 for -6 yards (54-R.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP