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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to TEN 36, Center-46-M.Orzech. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 37 for 1 yard (13-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model