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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model