Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:51) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 25 for 7 yards (24-B.Snell Jr.). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.08 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model