Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(:21) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.06 EP
45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -1.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model