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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 2, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.13 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP