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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model