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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CIN 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 40 for 9 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 33-Tr.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model