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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PIT 29, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model