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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 90

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to CIN 30, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for no gain (31-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.20 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP