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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 93

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CIN 47, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson to CIN 43 for 4 yards (55-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 51, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model