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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model