Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 40 for 7 yards (40-B.Wilson; 29-T.McRae). CIN-82-C.Carter was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model