Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 9-R.Allen punts 54 yards to TB 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-T.Logan ran ob at TB 35 for 27 yards (30-Q.Ollison). PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at TB 10. Penalty on TB-17-J.Watson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model