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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 7

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 7-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model