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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ATL 38, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 44 for 6 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.21 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 38, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP