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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 9-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP