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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage to TB 45 for 5 yards (26-S.Bunting).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.92 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model