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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model