4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ATL 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 19 for 2 yards (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model