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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 9-R.Allen punts 40 yards to TB 45, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-80-L.Stocker.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.14 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model