Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 8 at the 40
Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(9:31) 9-R.Allen punts 37 yards to TB 3, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
+0.45 EP
Model's Pick
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK
+0.31 EP
- 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT
+0.20 EP
What Happened
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
