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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 17 at the 44
Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(4:08) 9-R.Allen punts 34 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.34 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.43 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK
-0.28 EP
- 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
- 53% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
