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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 50

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(:56) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-35-M.Killebrew.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model