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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 32

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Wims. Penalty on CHI, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model