Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to CHI 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 22 for -4 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model