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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-D.Amendola to DET 34 for 6 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model