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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 69

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-D.Amendola to DET 22 for 3 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model