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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 83

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to DET 40, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-D.Amendola to DET 45 for 5 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model