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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model