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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.17 EP