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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:08) (Run formation) 24-N.Chubb up the middle to PIT 38 for 2 yards (48-B.Dupree, 34-Te.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model