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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model