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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model