4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.61 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model