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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.01 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model